Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.927260 1.086387 1.264515 1.478707 1.729351 2.013470 2.360163
2024-10-27 0.645749 0.846787 1.098165 1.435717 1.877565 2.436960 3.200265
2024-11-03 0.518062 0.735978 1.030751 1.458933 2.065983 2.897484 4.126275
2024-11-10 0.457724 0.693941 1.034531 1.561907 2.359729 3.524804 5.362114
2024-11-17 0.400204 0.641713 1.009632 1.611616 2.574783 4.061262 6.540811
2024-11-24 0.347227 0.585288 0.966183 1.620817 2.721914 4.507211 7.638400
2024-12-01 0.301086 0.531097 0.915895 1.607514 2.824974 4.889619 8.680106
2024-12-08 0.264577 0.486717 0.873985 1.599481 2.931501 5.286307 9.796484
2024-12-15 0.237801 0.454983 0.848488 1.614803 3.078324 5.768264 11.128794
2024-12-22 0.205716 0.408380 0.789109 1.558040 3.081952 5.987201 11.996830
2024-12-29 0.198155 0.407472 0.814533 1.665765 3.413582 6.864250 14.261461
2025-01-05 0.174452 0.370877 0.765556 1.618519 3.429536 7.125221 15.319944
2025-01-12 0.152947 0.336292 0.717057 1.567817 3.436400 7.379322 16.426505
2025-01-19 0.134420 0.305449 0.672304 1.519147 3.441852 7.634119 17.581300
2025-01-26 0.124287 0.291554 0.661713 1.543541 3.610914 8.263704 19.667413
2025-02-02 0.121435 0.293785 0.686907 1.652502 3.987760 9.407449 23.115440
2025-02-09 0.114749 0.285967 0.688041 1.705106 4.239593 10.298270 26.094124
2025-02-16 0.106018 0.271873 0.672437 1.714842 4.388588 10.965216 28.620627
2025-02-23 0.096883 0.255399 0.648738 1.700764 4.475468 11.491092 30.864970
2025-03-02 0.089026 0.241063 0.628382 1.692264 4.575343 12.062965 33.316892
2025-03-09 0.083167 0.231165 0.617989 1.708478 4.742869 12.832245 36.419209
2025-03-16 0.074438 0.212203 0.581327 1.648409 4.694659 13.023805 37.949685
2025-03-23 0.073871 0.215937 0.606074 1.762409 5.148434 14.642229 43.796979